epok

Statistical

Error Growth Forecast

Updated Jul 28, 2026 · 1d ago

Spots an error signature whose arrival rate is climbing and projects when it reaches a volume that matters — as a time range, before the incident, not after.

Example alert

payments: "connection pool exhausted" reaches 300/h in 1.4h–4.2h (likely ~2.3h)

Exact wording varies — the detector generates titles from the anomaly it finds. This is representative of what an alert looks like when it fires.

How it works

Tracks how often each known error signature arrives, hour by hour, and fits a robust trend line that a single spike cannot fool. When the trend is statistically significant and the signature is already at a material volume, it projects the crossing and reports it as an earliest–likely–latest range rather than a single time. Resolution is one hour, so the forecast is honest about hours and never claims minutes; the hour still in progress is excluded. Low-confidence projections say so on the alert. Absolute floors keep a signature going from 1/min to 2/min silent despite the doubling. Learning period: 12 hours per signature.

Availability

Runs on these tiers:

TrialTeamGrowthCustom

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